By Yong Wook Kwon | YONHAP | Updated: 2025-12-26 15:46

In a post on its website on the 26th, ING stated, "The main drivers of GDP growth in the third quarter this year were high-income consumers and capital expenditures in the technology sector."

The bank assessed, "A closer look at the GDP report reveals the clear structure of a K-shaped economy."

ING explained, "The top 20% of households are steadily increasing consumption, supported by high incomes and surging asset values, while the bottom 60% are facing severe difficulties due to job insecurity and concerns over inflation driven by tariffs."

The bank emphasized, "This polarization explains why consumption remains resilient even as overall economic sentiment is deeply subdued."

Similar trends are becoming increasingly evident in the corporate sector.

ING noted, "Corporate capital expenditures outside the technology sector have declined for four consecutive quarters, resembling a recessionary pattern. In contrast, investment in computing and software has risen 18% year-on-year, driving overall corporate capital spending higher."

The bank projected, "Both trends—robust consumption among high-income households and strong investment in technology stocks—show no signs of weakening and are likely to continue powering growth next year."

At the same time, ING warned, "The most plausible scenario that could reverse these trends would be a sharp decline in technology stock valuations due to market instability. This would tighten lending conditions, curb investment spending, and ultimately have a negative impact by reducing the asset values of high-income households."

ING added, "According to Federal Reserve data, the top 20% of US households own 70% of the nation's wealth. At present, this type of financial market shock would most significantly alter the consumption patterns of these households."