By Wang Wei | China Daily | Updated: 2026-02-10
China will make stimulating consumption a top priority in 2026 as the world‘s second-largest economy pivots toward domestic demand-driven growth, a senior economist has said.
Wang Wei, former director of the Market Economy Institute at the State Council’s Development Research Center, said the country‘s final consumption expenditure is expected to exceed 90 trillion yuan (about $12.9 trillion) during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), accounting for around 60 percent of GDP and contributing over 60 percent to economic growth.
“Consumption has become the primary engine of China’s economic growth. The shift from ‘investment and export-led’ to ‘consumption and innovation-led’ is now firmly established,” Wang said in an exclusive interview with China Daily.
Service consumption to take the lead
Wang highlighted that service consumption — covering education, healthcare, culture, sports, entertainment, and elderly care — will be the core growth driver. “The share of service consumption in urban and rural residents‘ total consumption expenditure will rise to 50 percent during the 15th Five-Year Plan period,” she said.
This shift, she noted, reflects the natural evolution of consumption patterns. “Chinese households have moved from ‘having enough’ to ‘seeking better quality’. The era of mass standardization is giving way to diversified, personalized, and service-oriented demand.”
2026 policy toolbox
According to Wang, the government’s 2026 consumption stimulus package will focus on three pillars:
Expanding trade-in subsidy programs — covering not only automobiles and home appliances but also a wider range of consumer electronics and durable goods.
Introducing housing rental subsidies — targeting recent college graduates, new urban residents, and migrant workers to ease living costs and free up disposable income.
Developing the ‘premiere economy’ — supporting first-store openings, debut product launches, and flagship events to catalyze new consumption scenarios and brand upgrading.
“These measures are designed not merely to boost short-term spending, but to reshape the consumption environment and unleash pent-up demand over the medium to long term,” Wang said.
Structural opportunities
Wang also pointed to several structural trends that will shape China‘s consumption landscape through 2030:
Demographic shifts: An aging society will drive demand for health management, senior care services, and age-friendly consumer goods.
Digital acceleration: AI-powered retail, livestream e-commerce, and instant delivery services are creating new consumption touchpoints.
Green transition: Consumer preference for low-carbon, energy-efficient, and sustainable products is moving from niche to mainstream.
“China’s consumption market is undergoing a profound qualitative transformation,” Wang said. “The challenge is no longer about scale, but about how well supply can adapt to increasingly sophisticated and fragmented demand.”
Resilience amid external headwinds
When asked about external uncertainties including trade frictions and global supply chain realignment, Wang expressed confidence in the resilience of China‘s consumer market.
“With a middle-income population exceeding 400 million, China is the world’s most attractive growth market for consumer brands,” she said. “Multinational companies that succeed here will gain valuable insights applicable to other markets. This is not just about selling more — it is about co-creating the future of consumption.”
The economist added that further institutional opening-up in services trade, cross-border data flows, and professional qualifications recognition will help China integrate deeper into global value chains while upgrading its own consumption ecosystem.
Implications for 2026 growth
Wang‘s assessment aligns with the tone-setting Central Economic Work Conference held in late 2025, which explicitly listed “expanding domestic demand” and “cultivating new quality productive forces” as dual priorities for 2026.
With the 15th Five-Year Plan now underway, analysts expect more detailed implementation guidelines to be rolled out by mid-2026, including sector-specific action plans for cultural tourism, sports industry, and community-based elderly care.
